DEBRE BERHAN UNIVERSITY SPATIAL VARIATION AND DETERMINANT OF TIME TO FIRST BIRTH IN ETHIOPIA WOMEN AGE 15-49: SPATIAL AND PARAMETRIC FRAILTY MODELS

Abstract

The birth of the first child is the initial visible outcome of the fertility process, symbolizing a woman's transition into motherhood. Childbirth holds a significant transformative power, particularly for couples experiencing it for the first time. The main objective of this study is to find socioeconomic and demographic determinant and spatial variation of early first birth among reproductive women in Ethiopia and to estimate median age at first birth and spatial variation of prevalence of first birth and early birth in Ethiopia administrative areas. EDHS- 2019 conducted by Ethiopian Central Statistical Agency (CSA) and other aid organization was used as a source of data for this study. The study included a total of 8885 women of age 15-49 years during the time of survey. Different survival model were used to explore factors associated with the age at first birth. Out of 8885 total reproductive age women included in the study, about 65.8% (5,846 women) had experienced their first birth (event), while the remaining 34.2% (3,039 women) had not undergone their first childbirth (censored). Among all models we have tested inverse Gaussian shared frailty model was the best model to fit the data as it had smallest AIC and BIC values. Some of the statistically significant factors affecting age at first birth were wealth index, education level, the use of contraceptive method and age of household head. Living in rural area, no formal education, wealth index were identified as predictors of early first births. Higher prevalence rates for the early age at first birth were found in Benishangul-Gumuz and Afar. In contrast, a lower prevalence rate was found in Hareri and Addis Ababa. Promoting education up to at least the primary education especially inrural area and Maximizing access to and utilization of contraceptives, and it is important to investigate factors associated with delayed first births among urban residents and those with primary, secondary and higher education levels